Falling In Love With ADP
There’s no doubt about it, every year fantasy football managers decide to fade certain players who DO NOT (in my opinion) deserve to be faded. Last year, Josh Jacobs was faded to RB20, and his average draft position was a 4th-round pick. Jacobs finished the season as the RB3 overall and led the NFL in rushing yards! There were reasons to fade him but the sharp ones drafted him every time they saw him available in the 3rd/4th/5th rounds.
Here’s another one that really makes me ponder. Miles Sanders was being drafted as the RB33 going into last season. He wound up finishing as the RB15! He had one of, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL. What more could you want for your running back in fantasy football? Keep an eye on Sanders’ ADP this year as your drafts approach!
There are obviously some examples that are much harder to pinpoint. Look at Jamaal Williams. He led the league in rushing touchdowns & was a league-winner for some managers. I’m going to bet no one saw that one coming! Jerrick McKinnon is another name that was far too hard to predict, but someone benefitted from drafting him as RB64 last season as he helped managers during fantasy playoffs last year.
Kenneth Walker III was another running back that soared past his ADP and helped loads of fantasy teams out there. Drafted on average as the RB40 and finished the season as RB18. Heck, pretty much any Seahawks players benefitted managers last season as Geno made their offense exciting!
You now see what I’ll be diving into for this article, so why don’t we try to pinpoint some players that I love at their current ADP (as of 8/6). There’s a good chance some situations will change as the season approaches. Whether it’s a free-agent addition or an injury occurs, it can drastically change ADP and FAST.
D.J. Moore - Chicago Bears
This pick is my favorite. One of my favorite things each year is to pinpoint a player's situation that fantasy players are bearish toward & profit. When Stefon Diggs was traded to Buffalo, I snagged Diggs wherever I could. Last year, when A.J. Brown was traded to Philly, I was picking AJB any chance I had. This year? You guessed it, D.J. Moore. I love his landing spot in Chicago. He’ll see the best quarterback play he’s been tied to in his short career, he has very little competition at the WR position and his ceiling is higher than it has ever been.
Moore is being drafted as the WR22 in PPR leagues right now and I’m absolutely eating that ADP up. His best finish to date in PPR leagues was WR16 in 2018. Personally, I will not be shocked if he winds up as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this season.
I will acknowledge the risk, however. Justin Fields ran the ball A LOT last season. But, I do think that’s because his WR1 (Darnell Mooney) is what most teams have as their WR3 or, optimistically, a WR2. That’s not great for a young QB to develop. Bringing in D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet developing into a franchise TE and adding a big-bodied receiver like Chase Claypool last season are all signs pointing towards progression for Fields and massive fantasy value in D.J. Moore at an ADP of WR22.
Calvin Ridley - Jacksonville Jaguars
Yep, you called it. Another wide receiver joining a new team this offseason makes my ADP love list. With Trevor Lawrence blossoming into a superstar (in my opinion), Christian Kirk, Even Engram, and Travis Etienne helping the offense, Ridley should see PLENTY of opportunity to produce for fantasy purposes. Some are worried that his absence from football for the past two or so seasons will cause him not to produce. I am not one of those people.
He has been a fantasy stud before, and I believe he can be again. With an ADP of WR17 (40th overall) right now, you can grab him as your second wide receiver in drafts if you go RB-WR-WR in the first few rounds. Personally, I am a fan of that start. Imagine having Chubb, Waddle and Ridley to start your draft? Sign me up.
I fully understand the risk, but fantasy football is about taking risks and the upside of Ridley can help you win a championship!
Aaron Jones - Green Bay Packers
Do I even need to explain this one? Aaron Jones has finished as a top 10 RB in PPR leagues for the past four seasons. You should NOT be afraid to take him at his ADP of RB16 (39th overall). The fact that you can land him as your RB2 potentially is absurd. So what’s the risk? An unproven, young QB is the risk. What’s the upside? Jordan Love uses him as a safety valve and Jones finishes as a top 10 RB again and propels your team to the promise land this season.
I understand why those who are fading him are doing so, but to me, that’s the kind of pick that can benefit the managers who take him at his ADP. I recently did a mock draft where Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones were my “starters.” Are you kidding me? Two pass-catching running backs in a PPR league? Sign. me. up. I have no hesitation taking Aaron Jones this season, and I don’t think you should either.
David Montgomery - Detroit Lions
David Montgomery was a huge target of mine BEFORE they drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, and after they drafted Gibbs, I backed off a little. Now, because Monty’s ADP is falling, I am back in on him. It doesn’t seem like too long ago a running back by the name of Jamaal Williams was being drafted as RB52. Who then ended up as the RB13 overall in PPR leagues.
To be clear, I do not think Monty will finish near RB13 like Jamaal Williams did last season. But, I do think he will be the guy earning goal-line touchdowns similar to Jamaal last season. To snag Monty as RB31 (86th overall), which is a flex-caliber player, is a benefit to your fantasy teams. I will not be surprised if David Montgomery ends the season as a low-end RB2.
Treylon Burks - Tennessee Titans
I won’t lie, this one will really depend on DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry’s status. If both of those players are on the field, that is the best-case sceanrio for Burks. Being drafted as the WR40 in PPR leagues, he is sitting around an 8th round pick which would be a bench player depending on how your draft went.
For reference, George Pickens, Christian Watson and Keenan Allen all finished around WR40 last season with an average of 164 points. Which would be about 9 or 10 points per game. Call me crazy, but Treylon Burks can make that happen. Teams can’t ignore Derrick Henry, I don’t care what age he is or how much tread he has left on his tires. The guy is an absolute beast when he’s running the ball. The same goes for DeAndre Hopkins, he is a stud. Sure, DHop needs to be healthy, but between him and Henry, teams HAVE to respect them, which leaves Burks there to profit. He is my WR29 and should help push fantasy teams towards the playoffs if his ADP stays around the WR40 mark.
Tyler Conklin - New York Jets
This one is short and sweet. There’s nothing more enjoyable than Aaron Rodgers finding his tight ends on a seam down the middle of the field or when he connects with his tight ends at the goal line. Tyler Conklin may not have the best PPR value, but he will get his opportunities with Aaron Rodgers. If you decide to “punt” tight end in your fantasy drafts, I love targeting Conklin late in drafts. Currently being drafted as the TE24 and I can easily see him finishing as high-end TE2
If you’re like me and trying to kick your co-workers butts in fantasy football this year, draft these players and hoist that trophy!
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